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Key Takeaway: UAE motorists can expect a potential third consecutive month of petrol price reductions in May 2025, with prices likely to fall by 2-4% based on current Brent crude trends, global economic concerns, and tariff disputes affecting oil markets.

UAE Petrol Prices Expected to Fall Again in May 2025

Drivers across the UAE may see petrol prices drop for the third consecutive month in May 2025, as international oil markets continue showing downward pressure amid global economic concerns and international trade tensions.

April 2025 marked the second straight month of declining fuel costs in the Emirates, with Super 98 priced at Dh2.57, Special 95 at Dh2.46, and E-Plus 91 at Dh2.38 per litre. Based on current global market indicators, this downward trend appears poised to continue.

What’s Driving the Potential Price Decrease?

Several significant factors are contributing to the anticipated reduction in UAE petrol prices:

1. Global Oil Price Trends

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, has been trading predominantly in the $60-70 per barrel range during April, significantly lower than previous months. The commodity has reached lows of $62.8 per barrel in early April and averaged $66.6 throughout the month – nearly $4.5 lower than March’s average of around $71.

As of the last trading session, Brent crude stood at $66.9 per barrel, while WTI (West Texas Intermediate) was trading at $63.13.

2. International Trade Tensions

The ongoing US tariff disputes have created substantial market uncertainty. The US administration has tightened sanctions on Iranian oil trading networks and announced a 25% tariff on nations importing Venezuelan crude. While these measures could theoretically support higher prices, they have instead contributed to market volatility and negative sentiment.

3. OPEC+ Production Decisions

OPEC+ surprised markets with a faster-than-expected increase in oil production, placing additional downward pressure on prices. This decision appears to counterbalance supply concerns that might otherwise have driven prices higher.

4. Economic Slowdown Concerns

Persistent fears of a global economic slowdown and potential recession have dampened the outlook for oil demand, further contributing to price weakness in international markets.

UAE Petrol Price Trends: 2024-2025

To understand the broader context, examining the UAE’s fuel price history over the past 16 months reveals interesting patterns:

Notable Trends in UAE Petrol Prices

The data reveals several noteworthy patterns:

• Highest prices: May 2024 saw the peak of petrol prices, with Super 98 reaching Dh3.34 per litre.
• Recent decline: April 2025 prices show a significant drop from March 2025, with reductions of 5.86% for Super 98, 5.75% for Special 95, and 6.30% for E-Plus 91.
• Year-on-year comparison: Current April 2025 prices are approximately 18% lower than April 2024.

Petrol Price Forecast for May 2025

Based on current market conditions and recent trends, UAE motorists can reasonably expect another reduction in petrol prices for May 2025. While the exact figures will depend on global market movements over the coming days, the continued downward trajectory of Brent crude suggests a potential decrease of 2-4%.

Financial analysts at Saxo Bank have projected Brent crude to trade within a $65-$85 per barrel range for the second quarter of 2025. Given that prices are currently hovering at the lower end of this range, this forecast supports the prediction of continued price moderation in the UAE.

Impact on UAE Consumers and Economy

For UAE residents, decreasing petrol prices represent welcome relief from the high fuel costs experienced in early and mid-2024. The potential third consecutive month of price reductions would:

• Reduce transportation costs for individuals and businesses
• Help control inflation by moderating logistics expenses
• Boost consumer spending in other sectors of the economy
• Potentially increase domestic tourism and leisure travel

For delivery services, logistics companies, and transportation businesses, the continued reduction in fuel costs should translate to improved operational margins or competitive pricing.

How the UAE Determines Petrol Prices

The UAE’s fuel pricing mechanism has been linked to global oil benchmarks since 2015, following the country’s deregulation drive. The pricing committee sets new rates on the last day of each month, based on average international prices plus operating costs.

This transparent approach allows market forces to determine prices, rather than government subsidies, aligning the UAE with international economic practices while promoting resource conservation and economic efficiency.

Looking Forward

While further decreases appear likely for May, the volatile nature of global oil markets means that this trend could reverse later in the quarter. Analysts are watching several key factors that could influence prices:

• Further developments in US trade policy and sanctions
• OPEC+ production decisions and compliance
• Global economic indicators, particularly from major economies
• Seasonal demand fluctuations as summer approaches

UAE motorists should stay tuned for the official announcement of May 2025 fuel prices, typically released on the last day of April.

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Additional Reading Material

• UAE Fuel Prices Drop in April 2025: Save on Petrol and Diesel Costs
• UAE Petrol Prices March 2025: Will Fuel Costs Fall After February Hike?
• UAE Petrol Prices March 2025: Will Fuel Costs Fall After February Hike?