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UAE Central Bank Projects 4% GDP Growth in 2024, Strong Economic Outlook
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UAE Central Bank Projects 4% GDP Growth in 2024, Strong Economic Outlook

UAE’s economic forecast shows robust growth across non-oil sectors, with GDP expected to hit 4% in 2024 and rise further in coming years. Read the full analysis.

Vadim Kouznetsov
2–3 minutes
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The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) has maintained its positive stance on the nation’s economic trajectory, forecasting a 4.0% real GDP growth for 2024. The outlook becomes even more promising with projections of 4.5% and 5.5% growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Non-Oil Sector Leads Economic Expansion

The non-oil economy continues to show remarkable strength, recording a 4.8% year-on-year growth in Q2 2024, up from 4% in the previous quarter. This growth stems from significant advances in:

  • Manufacturing activities that attract increasing foreign direct investment, aligning with both Emirates-level and Federal strategies
  • Construction sector developments that showed substantial progress in the first nine months of 2024
  • Tourism and transportation services that boost economic activity
  • Financial and insurance sector expansion
  • Real estate market growth
  • Communications sector advancement

Trade Partnerships Boost Economic Performance

The UAE’s strategic approach to international trade is bearing fruit. Through comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPA), the nation has strengthened its global trade connections. Non-oil trade surpassed AED 1.3 trillion in H1 2024, representing 134% of GDP and marking a 10.6% year-on-year increase.

Fiscal Strength and Government Revenue

The first half of 2024 showcased strong fiscal performance:

  • Fiscal surplus reached AED 65.7 billion (6.7% of GDP)
  • Government revenue increased by 6.9% year-on-year to AED 263.9 billion
  • Tax revenues surged by 22.4% compared to the previous year
  • Government capital expenditure rose by 51.7% to AED 11 billion

Employment and Wage Growth

The UAE’s economic vitality is reflected in its employment statistics. The CBUAE Wages Protection System reported:

  • 4% increase in covered employees (September 2024)
  • 7.2% rise in average employee salaries
  • Strong indicators for sustained domestic consumption

Oil Sector Outlook

Oil production maintained steady levels, averaging 2.9 million barrels per day in the first 10 months of 2024. The sector is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2024, with an expected acceleration to 2.9% in 2025.

Looking Forward

The UAE’s economic outlook remains positive, supported by strategic government initiatives to attract foreign investments and promote economic diversification. Non-oil GDP growth is expected to maintain its momentum at 4.9% in 2024 and 5.0% in 2025, reflecting the success of the nation’s diversification strategy.

These indicators paint a picture of a resilient economy that continues to strengthen across multiple sectors, positioning the UAE for sustained growth in the coming years.

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